2017 Finals Prospects - The Doom and Gloom Scenario

 
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Fintan O'Laighin
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:15 pm    Post subject: 2017 Finals Prospects - The Doom and Gloom Scenario Reply with quote

In my post on today's win against Wests Tigers - www.mightybears.com/viewtopic.php?t=6569 - I challenge the comment in the NSWRL report of the game that the win secures NS a spot in the finals:
Fintan O'Laighin wrote:
Dosen also says that as a result of the win, NS has "secured their place in this year’s finals series". Not quite. We could still finish as low as ninth if we lose our last three games and other results don't go our way. Our remaining games are against Illawarra, Penrith and Newtown. We've already lost against Penrith and Newtown this year, and Illawarra has shown improved form since we beat them at Nowra. But after that gloomy and doomy prognosis, one more win will see us finish in the eight.

I emphasise that I expect us to make the finals, and one more win will do it, although we could even lose all three remaining games and limp into the finals because the results of other games will go our way. My worst case scenario calculations are below. For games that don't really affect us, I've just gone with respective table positions or home ground advantage (e.g. I expect Blacktown to beat Wests Tigers).

Round 22 (remaining game)
Blacktown lose to Wyong

Round 23
North Sydney lose to Illawarra
Mounties lose to Newcastle
Newtown lose to Penrith
Warriors lose to Wenty
Blacktown df Wests Tigers
Canterbury bye
Wyong bye

Wyong 39
Penrith 31
Warriors 31
Canterbury 30
-----
North Sydney 27
Mounties 26
Wenty 26
Illawarra 26
-----
Newcastle 25
Newtown 19
Blacktown 18
Wests Tigers 14

Round 24
Wenty lose to Newcastle
Illawarra df Blacktown
Wyong df Warriors
Newtown lose to Mounties
Wests Tigers lose to Canterbury
Penrith df North Sydney

Wyong 41
Penrith 33
Canterbury 32
Warriors 31
-----
Mounties 28
Illawarra 28
North Sydney 27
Newcastle 27
-----
Wenty 26
Newtown 19
Blacktown 18
Wests Tigers 14

Round 25
Illawarra df Canterbury
Newtown df North Sydney
Mounties df Blacktown
Wyong lose to Newcastle
Warriors df Wests Tigers
Wenty df Penrith

Wyong 41
Penrith 33
Warriors 33
Canterbury 32
-----
Mounties 30
Illawarra 30
Newcastle 29
Wenty 28
-----
North Sydney 27
Newtown 21
Blacktown 18
Wests Tigers 14
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Fintan O'Laighin
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 1:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Blacktown has defeated Wyong 28-24 but this doesn't effect the overall calcs as Blacktown can't catch North Sydney and North Sydney can't catch Wyong. The updated worst case scenario final table is:

Wyong 39
Penrith 33
Warriors 33
Canterbury 32
-----
Mounties 30
Illawarra 30
Newcastle 29
Wenty 28
-----
North Sydney 27
Newtown 21
Blacktown 20
Wests Tigers 14
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Moonbear
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 08, 2017 11:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You are indeed a true Bears fan Fintain. Factoring in the worst case scenario is always important when working out one's expectations.

Let's hope we win all three remaining matches and that Canterbury or Penrith slip up, leaving us with 4th spot. This seems unlikely with both of them having easy runs home, but we can live in hope.
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Fintan O'Laighin
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Moonbear wrote:
You are indeed a true Bears fan Fintain.

Was there any doubt? :-)

However, don't think I did this because I'm pessimistic. A claim was made that I knew to be incorrect (i.e. that NS had already secured a place in the finals) and I just provided the evidence to refute it.

Moonbear wrote:
Let's hope we win all three remaining matches and that Canterbury or Penrith slip up, leaving us with 4th spot. This seems unlikely with both of them having easy runs home, but we can live in hope.

Not that easy for Penrith - they have the Mighty Bears to contend with. The recent 17-10 loss in round 17 was one of our turning point games. I didn't see but listened over the internet and I had the strong impression that things were starting to click. We were leading until midway through the second half when Penrith scored a try against the run of play. See the comments at www.mightybears.com/viewtopic.php?t=6561.
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northern bear
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fintan,

Your Doom and Gloom Scenario might be close to the mark on what I saw today.

The Bears seem to keep their 'best' form for the TV games, and when I can watch.

Referee John Stone, any relation to Mick Stone? Seemed to like us just as much.
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Fintan O'Laighin
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

northern bear wrote:
Your Doom and Gloom Scenario might be close to the mark on what I saw today.

Tell me about, all three games today went the wrong way:

North Sydney 16 lost to Illawarra 30
Mounties 30 lost to Newcastle 32
Newtown 10 lost to Penrith 46
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Bears4Life
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 12, 2017 6:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fintan O'Laighin wrote:
northern bear wrote:
Your Doom and Gloom Scenario might be close to the mark on what I saw today.

Tell me about, all three games today went the wrong way:

North Sydney 16 lost to Illawarra 30
Mounties 30 lost to Newcastle 32
Newtown 10 lost to Penrith 46


A Wenty victory over NZ would add the doom and gloom.

Today's loss, basically ends our hopes for a Top 4 spot.
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Fintan O'Laighin
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

At least one result went our way this weekend:

Warriors 26 df Wenty 10

However, it changes the D&G scenario a bit as originally I had Wenty to lose to Newcastle in Round 24. This has now changed but the worst case scenario could still see NS miss out on points difference to Newcastle, although that's pretty unlikely (NS currently has +20 while Newcastle is -30). But it could happen. The good news is that despite yesterday's loss, we're in a better position now than before the weekend.

The updated worst case figs are:

Round 24
Wenty df Newcastle
Illawarra df Blacktown
Wyong df Warriors
Newtown lose to Mounties
Wests Tigers lose to Canterbury
Penrith df North Sydney

Wyong 39
Penrith 33
Warriors 33
Canterbury 32
-----
Mounties 28
Illawarra 28
North Sydney 27
Wenty 26
-----
Newcastle 25
Blacktown 20
Newtown 19
Wests Tigers 14

Round 25
Illawarra df Canterbury
Newtown df North Sydney
Mounties df Blacktown
Wyong lose to Newcastle
Warriors df Wests Tigers
Wenty df Penrith

Wyong 39
Warriors 35
Penrith 33
Canterbury 32
-----
Mounties 30
Illawarra 30
Wenty 28
Newcastle 27
-----
North Sydney 27
Newtown 21
Blacktown 20
Wests Tigers 14
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Fintan O'Laighin
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 19, 2017 4:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

North Sydney has qualified for the finals! However, we won't make the top 4 as the one team we can catch, Canterbury, is belting Wests Tigers - currently 40-4. We could finish level on points with Penrith, but it has a phenomenal F&A +269 compared with our +20.

The first game of round 24 resulted in a loss to Wenty which means that none of the teams currently outside the top 8 can catch the Bears. Wenty could still make the finals, but not at North Sydney's expense. The result of the game was:

Wenty 24 lost to Newcastle 30

The updated table, taking just this one match into account, and with only one round after this is:

1. Wyong Roos 37 (+177)
2. New Zealand Warriors 33 (+106)
3. Penrith Panthers 31 (+269)
4. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 30 (+74)
-----
5. North Sydney Bears 27 (+20)
*6. Newcastle Knights 27 (-24)
7. Mounties 26 (+21)
8. Illawarra 26 (-76)
-----
*9. Wentworthville Magpies 24 (+64)
10. Blacktown Workers Sea Eagles 20 (-110)
11. Newtown Jets 19 (-159)
12. Wests Tigers 14 (-362)
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cnbhs
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 19, 2017 8:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good, no pressure next week. Will be at Henson next week.
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Fintan O'Laighin
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cnbhs wrote:
Good, no pressure next week. Will be at Henson next week.

I was planning to go but some close friends have invited to attend me to attend their elder son's Bar Mitzvah. I should be back to catch the internet broadcast which I'm assuming Steele Sports will be doing.

The updated table after today's six games is:

1. Wyong Roos 38 (+177)
2. New Zealand Warriors 34 (+106)
3. Penrith Panthers 33 (+277)
4. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 32 (+118)
-----
5. Mounties 28 (+23)
6. North Sydney Bears 27 (+12)
7. Newcastle Knights 27 (-24)
8. Illawarra 26 (-78)
-----
9. Wentworthville Magpies 24 (+64)
10. Blacktown Workers Sea Eagles 22 (-108)
11. Newtown Jets 19 (-161)
12. Wests Tigers 14 (-406)

Only three positions on the table have been decided - 1st, 11th and 12th - although the top 4 has been decided. Who makes the top 8 may even come down to the last game of the home and away. North Sydney can finish anywhere from 5th to 8th. Next week's games are:

Saturday 26th August
Illawarra v Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs @ WIN Stadium, 3:00PM
Newtown Jets v North Sydney Bears @ Henson Park, 3:00PM
Mounties v Blacktown Workers Sea Eagles @ Aubrey Keech Reserve, 3:00PM
Wyong Roos v Newcastle Knights@ Morrie Breen, 3:00PM

Sunday 27th August
New Zealand Warriors v Wests Tigers @ Mt Smart Stadium, 1:45PM
Wentworthville Magpies v Penrith Panthers @ Ringrose Park, 3:00PM
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